|
Welcome to the Week 11 Fantasy Football Playbook! This will be your game-by-game guide to the week's slate of NFL games, featuring score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for both season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices. The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for borderline starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in both raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season. (Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, though at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
  Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Jonathan Taylor, Stefon Diggs Carson Wentz has delivered four top-12 fantasy weeks over his last six games, but he's fresh off a Week 10 dud and will now face a dominant Buffalo defense. He belongs on benches. Matt Breida exploded for a pair of touchdowns in Week 10, but note that he only played on eight snaps, compared to 25 for Zack Moss and 21 for Devin Singletary. The Buffalo backfield is one to avoid, if possible, but Moss remains the preferred flex. Nyheim Hines crashed back to earth last week with his sixth finish in his last seven games outside the top 45 fantasy running backs. He's a deep-league PPR flex. You'd be hard-pressed to bench Michael Pittman Jr. (fantasy's No. 7-scoring WR), but the young wide receiver has a brutal matchup against Tre'Davious White and the Bills this week, so lower your expectations. Cole Beasley's health limited him to just nine snaps last week, so he's been downgraded to flex territory for now. Emmanuel Sanders hasn't had any top-30 fantasy outings since Week 6, but he has a good matchup and is on the WR3 radar this week. Colts secondary receivers T.Y. Hilton and Zach Pascal should both be avoided in this matchup. Dawson Knox returned from injury to play on 45 of 54 snaps last week and, although he was limited to just one target, he remains a good TD candidate and in the TE1 discussion.
Over/Under: 48.5 (4th highest in Week 11)
Win Prob: Bills 75% (4th highest)
  Baltimore Ravens @ Chicago Bears
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews Justin Fields delivered a pair of top-10 fantasy outings prior to Chicago's bye. That provides some optimism that a breakout is underway, but he's still too risky to consider for your lineups in most formats. David Montgomery played on 49 of 58 snaps in his Week 9 return and is right back in the every-week RB2 mix. Latavius Murray is expected back from injury this week, but he'll continue to defer significant touches to both Devonta Freeman and Ty'Son Williams. Note that Le'Veon Bell was released this week. Murray and Freeman are underwhelming deep-league flex options. Darnell Mooney's hefty target share helped him to three top-30 fantasy weeks in the four games prior to Chicago's bye. Allen Robinson II is still without any top-30 fantasy weeks this season, but he did post a season-high 11 fantasy points in his last outing. With Fields adding some life to the Chicago offense, Mooney and Robinson are both back on the WR3/flex radar. Rashod Bateman posted a career-high 14 fantasy points despite the return of Sammy Watkins last week, so the impressive rookie receiver makes for a fine WR3/flex. When we last saw him in Week 9, Cole Kmet was targeted a season-high eight times and put up a career-high 87 yards. The second-year tight end is trending up, but remains out of the TE1 conversation for now.
Over/Under: 45.4 (9th highest)
Win Prob: Ravens 65% (8th highest)
  Detroit Lions @ Cleveland Browns
Lineup locks: D'Andre Swift, Nick Chubb Baker Mayfield left Week 10's action early with an injury, but he's not a fantasy option even if he plays, having managed only one top-10 fantasy outing this season. It's a similar sentiment for Jared Goff (also questionable), who hasn't had any weekly finish better than 20th since Week 2. If Goff is out, Tim Boyle should also be avoided in what would be his first NFL start. D'Ernest Johnson has done an admirable job when called upon to start this season, but he was limited to only 12 fantasy points with Chubb on the field during Weeks 8-9. Johnson is no more than a deep-league flex option, even though this is a good matchup. Swift is Detroit's clear lead back, so Jamaal Williams shouldn't be in lineups if he returns from injury this week. Jarvis Landry hasn't cleared 10 points in his four games since returning from injury, but he's a "squeaky wheel" and perhaps could see a boost in targets this week. He's on the WR3 radar as Mayfield's top downfield option. Donovan Peoples-Jones crashed back to earth last week -- a reminder of his low-target, boom/bust role. He's also questionable this week and is best avoided. Top Detroit receivers Kalif Raymond and Amon-Ra St. Brown have combined for only two top-30 fantasy weeks this season. T.J. Hockenson put up the dreaded goose egg in Week 10, but he had managed to produce three consecutive top-12 outings before that clunker. He remains a midrange TE1.
Over/Under: 43.8 (13th highest)
Win Prob: Browns 72% (5th highest)
  Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Lineup locks: A.J. Brown, Brandin Cooks Ryan Tannehill has three top-12 fantasy outings during his last four games and is one of your top streaming options this week. Tyrod Taylor opened the season with a pair of 16-plus point fantasy efforts, but he struggled in his return from injury last week and can't be trusted in lineups just yet. The second week of the post-Derrick Henry Titans backfield saw D'Onta Foreman (11 carries, two targets on 21 snaps) take control of things, with Adrian Peterson (eight carries, one target on 19 snaps) and Jeremy McNichols (four carries, three targets on 15 snaps) also plenty involved. Foreman is the preferred flex option here, but all three are risky as Tennessee continues to sort out the touches. Houston has added Royce Freeman to its four-man RB rotation, and all four make for poor fantasy options. Geoff Swaim -- yes, Geoff Swaim! -- now has four catches in three straight games. He also scored a touchdown in two of those outings. He's a name to consider starting in two-TE leagues.
Over/Under: 46.6 (6th highest)
Win Prob: Titans 85% (2nd highest)
  Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
Lineup locks: Dalvin Cook, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen Aaron Rodgers has now posted consecutive fantasy finishes of 14th or worse, but this comes after a six-game streak of 19-plus point outings. He's best viewed as a fringe QB1 against a Minnesota defense that has been respectable against quarterbacks this season. Kirk Cousins has six top-12 fantasy finishes this season, but also three finishes of 19th or worse. He's a name to try to avoid against a red-hot Packers' pass defense. Aaron Jones will miss a week or two, which positions AJ Dillon as Green Bay's feature back. Dillon, who put up 128 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 23 touches last week, will only need to fend off Patrick Taylor and perhaps Ryquell Armstead for touches. A featured role locks him into the RB1 mix. With the expected exception of Adams, none of Green Bay's wide receivers saw more than four targets last week. They should all be avoided. Make it four straight games with 9.5-plus fantasy points for Tyler Conklin. With an average of 11.6 fantasy points during that span, he's a fringe TE1 play this week.
Over/Under: 46.1 (7th highest)
Win Prob: Vikings 52% (15th highest)
  Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Lineup lock: Mike Gesicki Tua Tagovailoa has reeled off four top-15 fantasy weeks in a row (despite not starting last week) and is a fine streamer this week against the struggling Jets. Joe Flacco will start ahead of the ineffective Mike White and the injured Zach Wilson, but shouldn't be close to lineups. The Jets' run defense has been unbelievably poor and has allowed a whopping 13 running backs to reach 15 fantasy points this season. Myles Gaskin's production has been all over the map, but he's a strong candidate for his fourth top-15 fantasy outing in seven weeks. Michael Carter is fresh off his third top-15 fantasy outing in his last four games and makes for a fine RB2. Jaylen Waddle is averaging 9.4 targets per game over his last five outings and will be in the WR2 discussion for as long as both DeVante Parker and William Fuller V remain out. Corey Davis has four top-30 fantasy outings in seven games this season and is a viable WR3 against Miami's struggling pass defense. Elijah Moore has reeled off three straight finishes of 26th or better and has seen six-plus targets in six of eight games this season. He's risky with the QB change, but nonetheless the preferred flex option over teammate Jamison Crowder.
DFS Alert: Tagovailoa ($5,500) checks in as a terrific value at DraftKings this week. The second-year quarterback is priced 15th out of the 24 projected starters on the slate, despite sitting sixth in fantasy points during his four full games this season. Tagovailoa has thrown seven touchdowns and has added three on the ground in 4.5 games. Despite the missed action, he has as many top-15 fantasy finishes this season (4) as Tannehill, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow. The key this week is the matchup, as the Jets have allowed the second-most passing yards this season. New York has allowed seven quarterbacks to reach 19-plus fantasy points in nine games. Over/Under: 44.4 (12th highest)
Win Prob: Dolphins 62% (10th highest)
  New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Alvin Kamara Trevor Siemian has thrown two touchdowns in consecutive games, but he adds nothing with his legs and Taysom Hill continues to be mixed in. He's not a viable QB1. Boston Scott and Jordan Howard each delivered a pair of top-25 fantasy weeks while Miles Sanders was out, but with the team's lead back potentially ready to return this week, things are a bit foggy. The suddenly run-heavy Eagles have four options in the backfield (including rookie Kenneth Gainwell) and it's yet to be seen how the touches will be distributed. Sanders will be the safest flex if he's back, but he's not the most enticing play against a Saints defense allowing the third-fewest RB fantasy points and easily the lowest RB yards per carry (2.8) this season. If Sanders remains out, Scott will be the slightly preferred flex over Howard. DeVonta Smith has delivered exactly 22.6 fantasy points in consecutive games. He's shown some inconsistency this season, but his recent surge, coupled with a healthy target share, keeps the rookie in the WR3 mix. Marquez Callaway has four top-35 fantasy weeks this season, but he and his fellow Saints receivers have a very tough matchup against the Eagles' terrific pass defense. Dallas Goedert (concussion) is questionable this week, but he'll be a TE1 option if active. If not, this a situation to avoid, as New Orleans hasn't allowed a single tight end to reach double-digit fantasy points this season.
Over/Under: 46 (8th highest)
Win Prob: Saints 55% (13th highest)
  Washington @ Carolina Panthers
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, Terry McLaurin Cam Newton is back and, after scoring two touchdowns off the bench last week, he'll make his first start of 2021 in Week 11. When we last saw Newton in a full-time role (with New England in 2020), he posted a 137-592-12 season rushing line and was fantasy scoring's QB15. There's risk here as he gets up to speed with Matt Rhule's offense, but Newton's legs push him into the QB2 mix right out of the gate. Meanwhile, Taylor Heinicke has delivered five top-12 fantasy weeks this season, but Carolina's solid passing defense makes him a poor streaming option. Antonio Gibson came out of the bye week on fire, with 78 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 26 touches against a very good Buccaneers' run defense. Gibson is still lacking much passing-game involvement, but his rushing volume keeps him in the RB2 mix. J.D. McKissic remains game-script dependent, but his 11.0 fantasy PPG keep him in the flex discussion. Newton found Robby Anderson for a touchdown last week. That's a nice sign of life, and perhaps Anderson will leap back to the WR3 mix, but we need to be cautious considering that Week 10 marked his first weekly finish better than 40th this season. Ricky Seals-Jones (hip) will be a borderline starting TE option if he's able to play this week with Logan Thomas still out. If Seals-Jones sits, this is a situation to avoid.
DFS Alert: McCaffrey checks in at $8,900 at DraftKings this week, which isn't cheap, but is also too low for a player of his caliber. In four full games this season, McCaffrey is fantasy's clear RB1. He's now scored at least 23 fantasy points in 19 of his last 22 games, averaging 27.8 PPG during this span. He only played on 59% of Carolina's snaps last week (his second game back from injury), but still racked up 13 carries and 10 targets. McCaffrey has a decent matchup this week, as Washington has allowed the third-fewest yards and fourth-most touchdowns (12) to running backs this season. Cordarrelle Patterson, Darrel Williams, Melvin Gordon III, Leonard Fournette, Moss and Kamara all reached 17 fantasy points against Washington. Over/Under: 39.6 (15th highest)
Win Prob: Panthers 66% (7th highest)
  San Francisco 49ers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Lineup locks: James Robinson, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle Jimmy Garoppolo has reeled off three top-12 fantasy weeks in a row, but he's yet to clear two touchdowns in any game and, aside of a random trio of touchdowns earlier this season, remains all but a non-factor with his legs. He's best left on benches. The same goes for Trevor Lawrence, who hasn't posted a weekly finish better than 20th since returning from his Week 7 bye. Elijah Mitchell (finger) will be on the RB2 radar if he's able to play this week, although Jacksonville's run defense has been better you may realize with just 3.7 YPC and 4.8 YPT allowed to running backs. If Mitchell is out, Jeff Wilson Jr. will leap into the flex discussion with JaMycal Hasty also sidelined. Brandon Aiyuk has cleared a 20% target share in three straight games and is back in the weekly WR3 discussion. Marvin Jones Jr. is your top flex option among Jacksonville's wide receivers, but he hasn't had any top-50 fantasy outings since Week 6, so this is a situation to avoid if you can.
DFS Alert: Dan Arnold ($4,100) easily leads the Jaguars with 25 targets over the last three weeks and, for the second consecutive week, is the TE value play at DraftKings. Only Travis Kelce has more targets than Arnold during the last five weeks -- a run that has translated to 10-plus fantasy points for Arnold in four of those five games. Arnold sits fifth in fantasy points during this stretch, despite failing to score any touchdowns. The 49ers haven't allowed much to tight ends this season, but the schedule has been very light. The best one they faced was easily T.J. Hockenson, and he posted an 8-97-1 line against San Francisco. Over/Under: 42.7 (14th highest)
Win Prob: 49ers 62% (9th highest)
  Cincinnati Bengals @ Las Vegas Raiders
Lineup locks: Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, Darren Waller Burrow posted four top-12 fantasy weeks out of his last six games prior to the Bengals' Week 10 bye. Cincinnati's highly productive passing game keeps the second-year passer in the QB1 mix. Derek Carr has five top-10 fantasy outings this season, but also three finishes of 20th or worse over his last six games. He's a fringe QB1. Josh Jacobs posted a rare dud last week and he's now finished no lower than 21st at the RB position in five of seven games this season. He's a solid RB2 against a Bengals defense allowing the fifth-most RB fantasy points. Kenyan Drake is on the flex radar, as he plays a role in the passing game and the Bengals have allowed both the most targets and receptions to running backs this season. The Raiders have been very good at slowing wide receivers this season to the tune of the sixth-fewest WR fantasy points allowed. That said, Tee Higgins' heavy volume has allowed him to post three top-25 fantasy weeks in a row. He's still a WR2 option. Hunter Renfrow has reached double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this season and has had two of his best three games over the last two weeks. The slot man is a fine WR3. Tyler Boyd's last five games have netted only one top-40 fantasy week. He makes for an underwhelming flex option in a tough matchup against Nate Hobbs. Bryan Edwards exploded for 88 yards and a score last week, but he's yet to clear six targets in any game of his career and has seen exactly four looks in four straight games. C.J. Uzomah is a TD-dependent option on the TE1 borderline, but he does have a good matchup against a Raiders defense allowing the second-most fantasy points, receptions and yards to tight ends.
Over/Under: 48.9 (3rd highest)
Win Prob: Bengals 53% (14th highest)
  Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Travis Kelce Clyde Edwards-Helaire is expected back from injury this week after missing five games. Williams has shown well in his place and it's possible he'll maintain a significant role, but Edwards-Helaire was the clear No. 1 back before his injury and had put up 17-plus fantasy points in consecutive games before getting hurt. Both should be viewed as flex options for now. Williams would leap back into fringe RB1 territory if Edwards-Helaire remains out. For Dallas, Tony Pollard has only two weekly finishes better than 25th this season and isn't a strong flex play. Michael Gallup was targeted on five of his 40 snaps in his return from injury last week and has quickly rejoined the flex conversation. Dalton Schultz matched a season-low with just two targets last week, but he had at least five in each of his previous six games. He remains on the TE1 radar.
DFS Alert: Hill ($8,200) is one of the pricier options on DraftKings this week, but he's well worth the cost. The explosive receiver is currently second in WR fantasy points and has five top-10 outings under his belt. He's averaging a career-high 28% target share and has seen nine-plus targets in seven straight games. The matchup against Dallas is super intriguing as the Cowboys have been in Man-1 on an NFL-high 50.3% of coverage snaps this season. Hill has five 30-plus yard catches this season and four were against man coverage, with three coming against Man 1. Additionally, seven of his eight touchdowns have come against man coverage. Dallas is allowing 14.7 yards per WR reception (second highest) and seven receivers have reached 19 fantasy points against them. Over/Under: 52.8 (Highest)
Win Prob: Cowboys 57% (12th highest)
  Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Lineup locks: James Conner, DK Metcalf Kyler Murray has missed Arizona's last two games because of injury, but he'll be right back in the QB1 mix if he's active this week. If he's out, replacement options Colt McCoy and Chris Streveler should both be avoided. Chris Carson will be a RB2 play if he returns from a neck injury this week. If he remains out, Travis Homer (30 snaps last week) and Alex Collins (29) will share duties. Neither makes for a strong fantasy option, although Collins would be the preferred flex choice. DeAndre Hopkins has missed Arizona's last two games, but he'll be a lineup lock if he's active. Christian Kirk is up to WR20 in fantasy points. His value depends on the status of both Murray and Hopkins, but he's safest valued as a WR3. A.J. Green would get a boost to flex territory if Hopkins is out, but note that the veteran receiver has reached 10 fantasy points only once in his last five games. It's a similar story for Rondale Moore, who hasn't reached double-digit fantasy points since Week 5 and should only be considered for a flex spot if Hopkins remains out. Zach Ertz is averaging 5.0 targets per game since joining Arizona but hasn't hit 10 fantasy points since his team debut in Week 7. He's not an automatic play by any means. Gerald Everett (questionable) saw eight targets last week, which was nearly half of his season total (18) entering the week. He's a name to monitor, but not yet a viable TE1.
Over/Under: 47.3 (5th highest)
Win Prob: Cardinals 67% (6th highest)
  Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Chargers
Lineup locks: Najee Harris, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Diontae Johnson Herbert is fantasy's No. 7-scoring quarterback, but that's largely thanks to his three top-two fantasy outings. Strangely, he no other weekly finishes better than 12th this season. The good news is that his struggles have come against man coverage, but he's done most of his damage against zone and specifically Cover 3. The Steelers operate a zone-heavy defense and lean primarily on -- you guessed it -- Cover 3. Herbert is a QB1. Meanwhile, Ben Roethlisberger (COVID-19) could be back this week, but Mason Rudolph was fantasy's QB13 last week in his place -- and that was the best finish by any Steelers quarterback this season. Neither should be in lineups. Mike Williams' last top-40 fantasy outing was way back in Week 5. He averaged 10.2 targets per game during his first five games, but hasn't cleared six targets in any of his last four games. Williams has fallen to WR3 territory. Chase Claypool (toe) missed Week 10 and hasn't managed any top-35 fantasy outings since Week 5. Still, he sees enough volume in a passing-friendly offense to keep him in the WR3 mix. Pat Freiermuth saw a career-high nine targets last week and has three top-10 fantasy outings in his last four games. He's a TE1 for now. Jared Cook has been under five targets in four of his last five games and has fallen out of the starting TE mix.
Over/Under: 45.4 (10th highest)
Win Prob: Chargers 57% (11th highest)
  New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Lineup locks: Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans Daniel Jones returns from his bye week having gone five straight games without a top-12 fantasy outing. He belongs on benches against Tampa Bay. Saquon Barkley is back from an ankle injury and immediately leaps into must-start territory. Barkley had posted back-to-back top-10 fantasy weeks before the injury, but is best viewed as a RB2 this week against the Buccaneers' strong run defense. New York will have Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton and Kadarius Toney at wide receiver this week, whereas Sterling Shepard (quad) is questionable. Shepard has been a top-20 fantasy wide receiver in all three of his full games this season, so if he's active, then he and Golladay are the best WR3/flex plays from the group. If Shepard remains out, Golladay, Toney and Slayton all get a boost. Evan Engram rattled off a pair of top-10 fantasy weeks prior to the bye (his best finishes of the season). He's a borderline starter in Week 11. Rob Gronkowski is expected back this week and immediately rejoins the TE1 mix after opening the season with a pair of two-TD games.
Over/Under: 49.4 (2nd highest)
Win Prob: Buccaneers 85% (Highest)
  New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons
Lineup locks: None Mac Jones is on the rise and has a pair of top-eight fantasy showings over the past month, but note that he has no other finishes better than 17th this season. It's a good matchup as Atlanta has allowed the third-most QB fantasy points and touchdowns, but Jones hasn't done enough to warrant serious QB1 consideration. The same goes for Matt Ryan, who has two top-10 fantasy weeks this season, but also two finishes outside of the top 30 over the past three weeks. He should be benched against a New England defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy QB points (and more than 17 fantasy points to the position only twice). Damien Harris (concussion) was out last week, but he had 14-plus carries and 10-plus fantasy points in five straight games before getting hurt. He lacks upside, with one weekly finish better than 15th, because of a minimal passing-game role and it's possible he'll lose work to impressive rookie Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson filled in for Harris with a 20-100-2 rushing line last week. Stevenson has 13-plus fantasy points in three of his past four games and will be a solid RB2 if Harris is out -- and still on the flex radar if Harris plays. The two backs are set up with a terrific matchup against a Falcons defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs. Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) is questionable, which is the only reason fantasy's RB9 is not listed as a lineup lock. If he's out, Mike Davis (four carries, one target on 20 snaps last week) and Wayne Gallman (15 carries, two targets on 22 snaps last week) figure to split backfield duties. Though he did get some early run, most of Gallman's Week 10 carries came in the second half of a blowout loss, so Davis (10-plus fantasy points in 6 of 9 games this season) would be the better RB2/flex play. Jakobi Meyers finally caught his first NFL touchdown last week, but the reliable slot receiver has a total of just seven targets over his past two games and only three weekly finishes better than 35th this season. He's a WR3/flex. Kendrick Bourne scored a career-high 24 fantasy points and reached 100 scrimmage yards for the first time in his career last week, but the journeyman has seen four or fewer targets in 7 of 10 games this season. He's a bit of a boom/bust deep-league flex. Atlanta's wide receivers can't be trusted, as their No. 1 option, Russell Gage, has posted a pair of zero-point efforts over the past three weeks. That's especially the case against a Patriots' passing defense that has allowed an NFL-low 109 WR receptions this season. Kyle Pitts' last top-10 fantasy outing was in Week 7 and he has been held under 10 fantasy points in 6 of 9 games this season. He's also facing a tough matchup against a Patriots defense that has allowed the fewest receptions and yards, and the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Pitts' huge target share keeps him in the TE1 mix, but a dud is very possible. Hunter Henry has scored seven touchdowns in his past seven games, but he's also seen a maximum of four targets in his past five games. You're betting on a touchdown if you put him in your lineup.
Over/Under: 44.8 (10th highest)
Win Prob: Patriots 79% (3rd highest)
|
