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Petro's AP College Basketball Ballot, Jan. 26

Jan 26, 2015 -- 7:17am

By Soren Petro

The only team to lose in my top 12 this week was Villanova, and they dropped from three to seventh (Sorry Frank Boal).  
 
Wichita St. held its spot at number-ten, but just barely.  I thought long and hard about moving UNC, ND, and KU in front of them.  It didn’t happen this week… but certainly looks inevitable.  The Shockers just don’t have the strength of schedule to hold them off even if they keep winning.  In fact you are probably looking at Wichita St. getting around a five-seed even if they only lose a game or two the rest of the way.  I think a four-seed is going to be about as high as they can possible get.
 
VCU has a good chance to hang around the top 15, but not much of a chance to climb beyond that.  If anyone in the Big XII or Big 10 can go on a run, they might be able to crack the top 12.  Ohio St. might have the best chance.
 
The Cyclone’s loss to Texas Tech was a killer.  It is one thing to lose to other good teams, but when you fall to a league bottom feeder it is a black mark on the resume that isn’t going away.  The Clones are going to need to win in Lawrence and finish the sweep of Kansas to regain the clout of a top team.
 
Looking ahead to this week’s games.  There are three games featuring two top 10 caliber teams and Duke is plays two of them.  Put up or shut up time for the Blue Devils, as they go on the road against Notre Dame and Virginia.  The other big game has the rematch between UNC and Louisville.  
 
 
PETRO’S AP BALLOT
1. Kentucky
2. Virginia
3. Gonzaga
4. Arizona
5. Wisconsin
6. Duke
7. Villanova
8. Louisville
9. Utah
10. Wichita St.
11. North Carolina
12. Notre Dame
13. Kansas
14. VCU
15. West Virginia
16. Maryland
17. Iowa St.
18. Baylor
19. Northern Iowa
20. Texas
21. SMU
22. Georgia
23. Georgetown
24. Ohio St.
25. Oklahoma
 
26. Arkansas
27. Butler
28. Xavier
29. San Diego St.
30. Cincinnati
31. Indiana
32. Oklahoma St.
33. Miami
34. Washington
35. Davidson
36. Stanford
37. LSU
38. Connecticut
39. Michigan St.
40. Providence
 
OTHERS
Dayton 
St. John’s
Alabama
Colorado St.
Wyoming
NC State
 
 
GAMES TO WATCH
 
MONDAY
North Carolina vs. Syracuse
Iowa St. vs Texas
 
TUESDAY
Kansas St. vs. West Virginia
VCU vs. George Washington
Oklahoma St. vs. Baylor
Michigan vs. Nebraska
Alabama vs. Florida
Arkansas vs. Tennessee
Boise St. vs. Colorado St.
 
WEDNESDAY
TCU vs. Kansas
Notre Dame vs. Duke
Purdue vs. Indiana
Arizona vs. Oregon
LSU vs. South Carolina
Washington vs. Stanford
 
THURSDAY
Ohio St. vs. Maryland
UCLA vs. Utah
Cincinnati vs. Connecticut
 
FRIDAY
Arizona vs. Oregon St.
 
SATURDAY
Kansas vs. Kansas St.
Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame
Seton Hall vs. Xavier
Iowa vs. Wisconsin
Northern Iowa vs. Wichita St.
Louisville vs. North Carolina
Baylor vs. Texas
Kentucky vs. Alabama
Virginia vs. Duke
Oklahoma St. vs. Oklahoma
Gonzaga vs. Memphis
 
SUNDAY
None
 

Facts and Figures Friday

Jan 23, 2015 -- 9:17am

By Soren Petro

 

How to Win at Mizzou

 

We talked on Thursday about Kim Anderson needing to fence in Missouri talent.  I pointed out that Mike Anderson had done a very good job of keeping most of the talent in state, but had not been able to keep the very best talent home.

 

Anderson lost recruiting battles for first round talents like Tyler Hansbrough, Alec Burks, and Bradley Beal.  On Hansbrough and Beal he was just flat out beaten by UNC and Florida, but Burks hurts worse.  He was not a top 50 recruit coming out of Grandview, the perfect type of player (Steve Moore, Marcus Denmon, Michael Dixon) Mike Anderson had been landing.  Instead he was late to the party on Burks, and Colorado was able to get in early and keep him headed West on I-70.

 

After yesterday’s show I received an email from a Tiger fan that said Missouri doesn’t really produce that much talent, and keeping the Missouri kids home won’t be a major factor for Kim Anderson’s success at MU.  Below is the list of players born in the state of Missouri that have scored at least one point in the NBA.

 

 

1

Ben McLemore

2014

Present

2

Otto Porter

2014

Present

3

Bradley Beal

2013

Present

4

Ben Hansbrough

2013

2013

5

Alec Burks

2012

2015

6

Josh Harrellson

2012

2014

7

Malcolm Thomas

2012

2015

8

Tyler Hansbrough

2010

2015

9

Anthony Tolliver

2009

2015

10

Brandon Rush

2009

2015

11

Blake Ahearn

2008

2012

12

David Lee

2006

2015

13

Hiram Fuller

2004

2004

14

Kareem Rush

2003

2010

15

Loren Woods

2002

2008

16

Larry Hughes

1999

2012

17

Tyronn Lue

1999

2009

18

Jahidi White

1999

2005

19

Chris Carr

1996

2001

20

Cuonzo Martin

1996

1997

21

Ivano Newbill

1995

1998

 

 

That’s 21 players that were good enough in college to make the NBA and get on the floor.  Clearly there are varying levels of success from the players above, but they were all good enough to be NBA players.

 

Take a look.  How many of them played for the Missouri Tigers?  Only one… ONE!  Kareem Rush is the only Missouri born player to stay home.  That is the biggest problem for Missouri basketball.  Why won’t Missouri kids play for Mizzou?  This is a riddle that Kim Anderson, or anyone that takes the Missouri job must solve.

 

How would Brandon Rush and Tyler Hansbrough have looked playing on the same side of the floor in an inside/outside set?  What about Bradley Beal and Otto Porter filling the lanes on a fast break at Mizzou Arena?

 

No doubt the Tigers will need more than just the NBA caliber talent at Missouri, but throw in Moore, Denmond, and Dixon with Porter and Beal and you get the idea.  Drop in an out-of-stater like Kim English and you are dreaming of cutting down the nets in a football stadium.

 

 

Don’t Get Too Excited About Passing Numbers

 

This year there will be no new member of the Super Bowl Quarterback club and Russell Wilson and Tom Brady are already card-carrying members, but that’s not the only thing that is not changing about the Super Bowl QB.  He’s not going to be dripping in gaudy passing statistics either, at least not by today’s standards.

 

Since the turn of the century (makes it sound like a longer amount of time) and Kurt Warner’s 41, not one Super Bowl winning QB has topped 40 TD passes in a season.  NOT ONE!  In fact not one has even reached 35 TD passes in their Super Bowl winning season.

 

Here is a look at the stats for the QB’s the season they won.

 

 

 

Yards

TD

INT

Rating

Kurt Warner '99

4353

41

13

109.2

Trent Dilfer '00

1502

12

11

76.6

Tom Brady '01

2843

18

12

86.5

Brad Johnson '02

3049

22

6

92.9

Tom Brady '03

3620

23

12

85.9

Tom Brady '04

3692

28

14

92.6

B.Roethlisberger '05

2385

17

9

98.6

Peyton Manning '06

4397

31

9

101

Eli Manning '07

3336

23

20

73.9

B.Roethlisberger '08

3301

17

15

80.1

Drew Brees '09

4388

34

11

109.6

Aaron Rodgers '10

3922

28

11

101.2

Eli Manning '11

4933

29

16

92.9

Joe Flacco '12

3817

22

10

87.7

Russell Wilson '13

3357

26

9

101.2

TOTALS

52895

371

178

93.1

Average

3526

25

12

93.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Russell Wilson '14

3475

20

7

95

Tom Brady '14

4109

33

9

97.4

 

 

Look at the average for TD passes… 25.  Then throw in the 3,526 yardage average and you start to think maybe the Chiefs can win a Super Bowl with Alex Smith.  There seems to be a little “drive for show, put for dough” going on with the QB’s.  For the most part the big statistical seasons seem to be something that is occurring more to mask other weaknesses during the regular season that can’t be covered up over the course of three of four playoff games.

 

Only three QB’s have won the Super Bowl while throwing for 4,000+ yards in a season and zero with 5,000 yards, which is becoming much more common place these days.  However it should be pointed out, if the Pats win it this year it will be 4 of the last 9 seasons that the winning QB has topped 4,000 yards.  Certainly we can see a trend beginning to develop.

 

After looking at these figures it is clear you don’t have to set records at QB to win the Super Bowl.  It should give confidence to Chiefs fans that there is hope of winning it all with Alex Smith.  However his numbers are going to have to get better.  This year Smith threw for 3,265 yards with 18 TD’s and 6 INT’s, good for a rating of 93.4.   If they can put some more talent around him at the skill positions, you can easily see those numbers rising to the average of the previous winners.

 

Petro's AP College Basketball Ballot, Jan. 19

Jan 19, 2015 -- 3:44am
Soren Petro's ballot for the Associated Press college basketball poll, for the week of January 19, 20151. Kentucky2. Virginia3. Villanova4. Gonzaga5. Arizona6. Wisconsin7. Duke8. Louisville9. Utah10. Wichita St.11. North Carolina12. Notre Dame13. Maryland14. Iowa St.15. Kansas16. VCU17. Oklahoma18. Texas19. West Virginia20. Baylor21. Northern Iowa22. San Diego St.23. Iowa24. SMU25. Georgia 26. Ohio St.27. Washington28. Georgetown29. Oklahoma St.30. Indiana31. Arkansas32. Butler33. Seton Hall34. Xavier35. Michigan St.36. St. John’s37. Old Dominion38. Dayton39. Stanford40. South Carolina OTHERSConnecticutFloridaAlabamaCincinnatiBYUDavidsonNC St.WyomingProvidenceLSUSyracuse
 
 
 

    

Petro's AP College Basketball Ballot, Jan. 12

Jan 12, 2015 -- 9:16am

1. Kentucky

2. Virginia
3. Duke
4. Gonzaga
5. Villanova
6. Wisconsin
7. Arizona
8. Louisville
9. Utah
10. Wichita St.
11. Kansas
12. Iowa St.
13. North Carolina
14. West Virginia
15. Notre Dame
16. Oklahoma
17. Arkansas
18. VCU
19. Maryland
20. Texas
21. Baylor
22. Northern Iowa
23. Ohio St.
24. San Diego St.
25. Oklahoma St.
 
26. Washington
27. Seton Hall
28. Butler
29. Xavier
30. St. John’s
31. Michigan St.
32. SMU
33. Connecticut
34. Florida
35. Iowa
36. Alabama
37. Georgetown
38. Cincinnati
39. Indiana
40. Syracuse
 
OTHERS ON THE RADAR
Old Dominion
Dayton
South Carolina
BYU
Georgia
Stanford
Davidson
North Carolina St.
 

Petro's AP College Basketball Ballot, Jan. 5

Jan 05, 2015 -- 12:00am
Below you can see my top 40 and some other teams on the radar.
 
Not much movement at the top of my ballot.  Even though they are ranked 1-25 there are certainly some tiers of teams within the top 25 and beyond.  
 
Kentucky is in a class by itself, and at this time I consider Duke to be alone on the next level.  There isn’t much separation among the teams between Virginia at number three and Villanova at number eight.  Texas through Maryland is the next group of teams (Number 9-17) on about the same level.  From about 18 to 40 you can pretty much throw the teams in the air.
 
Biggest jump is Seton Hall.  Wins over Villanova and St. John’s get them into the top 25.  Biggest drop is Ohio St.  I’ve given them credit for playing tough games so far, but at some point you have to win some of those games.
 
 
PETRO’S BALLOT
1. Kentucky
2. Duke
3. Virginia
4. Wisconsin
5. Louisville
6. Arizona
7. Gonzaga
8. Villanova
9. Texas
10. Utah
11. Wichita St.
12. Kansas
13. West Virginia
14. North Carolina
15. Oklahoma
16. Iowa St.
17. Maryland
18. Baylor
19. Notre Dame
20. Ohio St.
21. Arkansas
22. VCU
23. Seton Hall
24. Northern Iowa
25. Butler
 
26. South Carolina
27. Washington
28. St. John’s
29. San Diego St.
30. Georgetown
31. BYU
32. Oklahoma St.
33. Xavier
34. Georgia
35. SMU
36. Iowa
37. Minnesota
38. Connecticut
39. Indiana
40. Stanford
 
OTHERS
Syracuse
Cincinnati
George Washington
Old Dominion
Davidson
Michigan St.
Florida
TCU
Colorado St.
 
 
THIS WEEK’S GAMES OF NOTE
 
MONDAY
Oklahoma @ Texas
Notre Dame @ North Carolina
 
TUESDAY
Villanova @ St. John’s
Oklahoma St. @ Iowa St.
Ohio St. @ Minnesota
Arkansas @ Georgia
 
WEDNESDAY
Kansas @ Baylor
North Carolina St. @ Virginia
Purdue @ Wisconsin
Colorado @ Utah
Wyoming @ Colorado St.
 
THURSDAY
Arizona @ Oregon
Michigan St. @ Iowa
 
SATURDAY
Virginia @ Notre Dame
Louisville @ North Carolina
Iowa St. @ West Virginia
Texas @ Oklahoma St.
Maryland @ Purdue
Ohio St. @ Indiana
Baylor @ TCU
Georgia @ LSU

Petro's AP College Basketball Ballot, Dec. 29

Dec 29, 2014 -- 10:03am

By Soren Petro

1. Kentucky
2. Duke
3. Virginia
4. Wisconsin
5. Villanova
6. Louisville
7. Arizona
8. Gonzaga
9. Iowa St.
10. Texas
11. Utah
12. Ohio St.
13. Wichita St.
14. Kansas
15. Baylor
16. West Virginia
17. North Carolina
18. Oklahoma
19. Maryland
20. St. John’s
21. San Diego St.
22. Georgetown
23. Notre Dame
24. Arkansas
25. Florida

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