No. 1 seed on line? You bet'cha

As if the second chapter of the 2010 Sunflower Showdown in Lawrence didn’t hold enough at stake, it most certainly does now.

K-State sees a crack in the door for the Big 12 title. Kansas seeks redemption on Senior Night after its loss to Oklahoma State. And by my calculations, the No. 1 seed and a path to the St. Louis regional lies on the line.

Right now, a No. 1 spot in the NCAAs is buried in the Jayhawks' pocket. But K-State can wrestle it away, starting Wednesday night.

Everyone I’ve quickly polled feels the “body of work” gives KU an automatic No. 1 seed. And to this point, it definitely should. But what if K-State tops the Jayhawks in Lawrence, then wins the Big 12 tourney – possibly over KU?

Then we either have two No. 1 seeds from the Big 12 or – believe it or not – the Wildcats as a No. 1 and Kansas as a No. 2.

How can this possibly happen? If Kentucky, Duke and Syracuse win their regular season titles and tourneys, they’d be hard to deny the top line.

So what will it take for KU to grab a No. 1 seed?

1. Win Wednesday against K-State and Mizzou. If so, KU could forfeit the Big 12 first-round game and get a No. 1.

2. Lose Wednesday, but win the Big 12 Tournament.

Okay, we all knew that. But what about K-State getting a No. 1 seed?

1. K-State wins out, beating KU in Lawrence and wins the Big 12 final.

By that point, K-State would be ranked ahead of KU, stand at 29-4 and won 12 in a row – including the Big 12 title. KU will be winners of the regular season, stand at 29-4 or 30-4, but would have lost 3 of its last 6, two to the Wildcats.

So which of the two Kansas schools would be the No. 1 seed in the eyes of the NCAA? I don’t even have to answer that question.

2. K-State wins Wednesday and assume they reach the Big 12 final, the 'Cats would move into the nation's top 3 by then. Even with a close loss to Kansas, KSU could be a No. 1 alongside KU - with a combo of losses around the country. Should KSU lose to another team besides KU in the final, K-State holds a slim-to-none chance at a No. 1.

3. Lose on Wednesday, win the Big 12 tourney and a massacre to the other candidates during tourney weekend.

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So I served up a lot of scenarios and “what ifs”, but “if” isn’t far away. You’re reading this “what if” column on the week before conference tourneys. This is what we’re supposed to do. Dream if you’re K-State. Talk about locking up the No. 1 if you’re Kansas.

A win by Kansas State on Wednesday, and the “ifs” become “quite possiblies.”

But one problem lies in store for K-State.

Oklahoma State 85, Kansas 77.

Staying in line with one of the very few predictable trends in college athletics, Kansas suffered the look-ahead syndrome. Two giant mountains loomed on the horizon in rivals KSU and Missouri, so Oklahoma State barely registered on the radar as a small ant hill.

The only benefits for Kansas in Stillwater were inching closer to an undefeated Big 12 season and improving onto the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA (yawn).

The ant hill turned into Mt. Everest just after tip-off.

But as we all know, if one more event can be even more predictable than the look-ahead loss, it’s the rebound win. Especially against your rival. At home.

All that said, the game in Lawrence should be a doozy. The clash will stand as the biggest game between the two since the 1988 Regional Final.

That is, until the Big 12 final in Kansas City next weekend. If the championship turns out to be Sunflower Showdown III, a lot more marbles will be in play.

Until Sunflower Showdown IV in Indianapolis. Okay, even I’ll admit that’s a lot of “ifs”. “If” that happens, everyone will be happy.