Expectations crystal clear for Mizzou

The mirage faded away quickly for Missouri fans Monday night. Too quickly.

Talks of a possible Big 12 title were squelched by the time Brady Morningstar’s halftime shot took its second bounce off the rim Monday night. The hopes that Mizzou could walk into Allen Fieldhouse and sneak out a win were a distant hallucination.

So it’s time to set the expectations straight. Much like the schlub at a bar, who talks to the hot girl sitting by herself for a few minutes. Thoughts of grabbing a phone number, going on a few dates and parading her around town fade quickly when the 6-foot-4 boyfriend strolls up and with a forearm shiver says “Excuse me, buddy.”

Let’s get serious.

The real expectations – and not bad ones at all – should be:

1. Finish in the top 5 in the Big 12

2. Make the NCAA tournament

High expectations:

1. Break the top 4 in the Big 12 and a bye in the Big 12 Tournament.
2. Reach the Sweet 16
3. Beat Kansas or Texas in Columbia

Delusions of winning in Lawrence are now wiped away. After all, Mizzou has lost four of the last five meetings at Allen by 19 points or more. That’s blowout material nearly every season.

Most fans chalk up a win in Columbia. Eh, not so fast. KU has won 5 of the last 8 meetings in Missouri. Kansas has what it takes to win on the road. A strong inside game. Upperclassmen leadership. Ability to make free throws. Strong defense.

Unfortunately, that’s a lot of what Mizzou lacks. And the inability to shoot, with a Big 12 low 35.6%. That’s typically the recipe for an 8^th-place finish, at best. But with MU’s fast-paced style and home-court advantage, a 4^th-place finish may be attainable.

Maybe.

I’ll chalk up losses:

- at Baylor (strong inside game and defense)
- at K-State (revenge factor)

- 1 of 2 with Texas and Kansas (top teams, power post game. A split is best-case scenario).

That’s five losses already. If MU can sweep Texas and KU, then fourth is within sights. Lose both, and that’s six losses, in a dogfight with OSU, A&M, Baylor and K-State for the top 7.

Mizzou’s style lends them to beating the top team in the conference (KU in Columbia?), but makes them susceptible to losing to the worst (at Iowa State?).

So am I dogging MU? Not at all. They enjoyed a great season in 2008-09, and are in a rebuilding mode. Help in the post is on its way next year. This is just the downward swoop on the roller coaster of a collegiate basketball program.

So now the expectations have been set straight. Set the crosshairs on a bye in the Big 12 tourney. Consider a Sweet 16 appearance the equivalent of making the Final Four. Split with UT and Kansas. Catch KU on its rebuilding year in 2010-11 and gun for a Big 12 title.

Until then, lose a few pounds, get a new hairstyle, bulk up and then approach the hot girl sitting by herself. Then you’ll be the guy pushing the schlep out of the way and walking away with the prize.