Revisiting 5 keys to K-State bowl season

KANSAS CITY, Kan. – The Kansas State Wildcats need just one more win in the final two games of the season to qualify for a bowl game.

Back on Aug. 7, we explored five keys that could collectively unlock that door.  Let’s revisit that list, in its entirety, and below each point in italics, I’ll fill in how thoughts may or may not have changed with the Wildcats after ten games.

1)  STAY HEALTHY – Contrary to popular opinion, K-State has decent to good talent at a range of positions, especially at receiver (Brandon Banks) and on each level of the defense (Jeffrey Fitzgerald and Brandon Harold up front, Alex Hrebec at linebacker, and Joshua Moore at corner).  It just doesn’t have enough of it.  What that looks like on the field, potentially, is K-State building an early lead but then watching it melt as its frontline guys tire, get dinged, etc... That doesn’t begin to shine light on guys going down with weight-lifting injuries (Brock Unruh – torn pectoral; out for season) – which opens the door to questioning how far guys still need to go physically in preparation before they are ready to play for Snyder.  Whether it happens on the field or in training, the bottom line is guys are already getting hurt, and even a reasonable amount of injuries will wipe away any bowl aspirations.

Lack of depth is a key reason why I believe the Wildcats will be in multiple close games as Snyder and his co-offensive coordinators, Del Miller and Dana Dimel, do what they can to control time of possession. A large part of that will come down to how well a certain new piece plays – and how soon…

It didn’t look like K-State was getting any favors when Harold went down with a knee injury that eventually blew up his entire season.  Fitzgerald moved out to end as d-tackle Daniel Calvin has improved this season, and Antonio Felder has been solid as well. Group effort paved in a big hole. On offense, Daniel Thomas (see more below) isn’t healthy at all, but all he’s done anyways is improve his NFL stock and turn Big 12 defenders into little boys.   J. Moore has struggled with injury this year, too.

Grade: A-  Football delivers injuries every year, and K-State has been able to shock everyone this season while avoiding the major catastrophe.

2) DANIEL THOMAS – Look!  It’s a quarterback, it’s a halfback, it’s the Wildcats version of the Wildcat: It’s Daniel Thomas!  Seriously, whatever position Snyder decides to place Thomas in, he’s got to produce early if the Wildcats don’t want to be in a 2-4 hole halfway through the season.

If Thomas takes to K-State’s offense in quick fashion, hello mid-tier bowl.  If Thomas can’t get it figured out, and the Wildcats are forced to situationally mix Carson Coffman and South Florida-transfer Grant Gregory at QB; and Keithen Valentine, Jarrell Childs and Frank Delarue at RB, seven wins is probably out of reach.

Unless something changes in a hurry, I believe Massachusetts will see Thomas as a running back the first time K-State’s offense takes the field.  His numbers as a passer at Northwest (Miss.) Community College suggest a marginal passer, but the six-yard average running the ball (618 yards, 103 carries, 2 TD) says the talent is legit.

Good talent, however, doesn’t necessarily mean good football player.  Rarely do I believe in so goes a player, so goes a team – especially in football, but that might be the case.

Grade: A+++  Seriously. Thomas has been 100x the player that anyone could have expected heading into the season.  Maybe because of the bad shoulder, maybe not, the Wildcat formation has been shelved for the most part this year, but an improved offensive line has opened more than enough room for Thomas on old-fashioned running plays.

I could write 4,000 words on what Thomas has meant to Bill Snyder’s first year back being a successful one, but I won’t.  Let’s see how the rest of the year plays out first, but know that without Thomas, none of what K-State has done this year is possible.

3) VIC DOES HIS THING – If any of the hires Bill Snyder made upon his recall was exciting, landing Vic Koenning as defensive coordinator topped the list.  Koenning’s resume strongly suggests that the K-State situation is right up his ally.  At Clemson, he inherited a group that would eventually produce three high NFL draft picks.  Sound familiar?  Granted, Clemson plays in the ACC, not the Big 12, but the goal in today’s conference is to stop opposing offenses just a few times, not shut them out.  Just a few stops, and the Wildcats will be fine.  In order to accomplish that, Koenning needs…

Grade: B+   I wrote a few days ago, highlighting K-State’s defensive coaching effort this year.  So, you know I would add Chris Cosh to this point also.  The 4-2-5 / 4-3 has been fantastic for K-State this season, though you would be hard-pressed to get that description from Koenning, who demands perfection (just ask him).  It is hard to keep track of all the moving parts Koenning has had to incorporate into his defense, but he has made it all work for a unit ranked about 40 spots higher than most projected prior to the season.  I know I would have taken 80^th for sure after last year’s mess.  K-State fans should be really glad Vic wouldn’t and won’t ever accept something like 80. (FYI, Clemson, it should be noted, is 13^th in '09 after finishing 18^th last year under Koenning.)

Oh, and on the NFL draft picks thing – In August, I meant that as Fitzgerald, Harold and J. Moore.  Fitzgerald has proven to be pro-caliber.  Harold is currently attending games in street clothes and sitting in the stands – at a clear crossroads in his career.  And on Moore: I sat between three NFL scouts at Farmageddon, who each had a stack of profile sheets on K-State players.  Looking over their shoulder as much as I could, I didn’t see Moore’s name anywhere.  And, I didn’t hear it in the scouts’ conversations either.  Take it for what it’s worth.

4) INSTANT IMPACT – Safety Emmanuel Lamur has been a hot topic among teammates in the early going.   The junior college transfer measures at 6-feet-4, and if K-State goes bowl-ing, it means a player or two like Lamur have stepped up/panned out.  Stories have surfaced about Lamur’s ability to hit.  Hopefully, he has the coverage skills and focus to play the position correctly, consistently, because, after all, it is the Big 12, which is Swahili for “best passing conference in the country.”  And, selfishly, as a Kansas City Chiefs follower, I don’t think I can handle having to watch a Saturday version of Bernard Pollard.

Grade: B+ / A-   Lamur has been very good for the Wildcats while juggling a bevy of things.  It has been a consistent progression for the safety, who has risen from new starter to someone Bill Snyder has publicly addressed as needing to assume a more vocal role with his teammates.  He has kept his head down and worked hard, getting burned on occasion, sure, but making more plays than not (like picking off Todd Reesing).  He has become an unassuming role model for Koenning’s defense, and one his teammates are willing to follow.

Oh, and I wish Houston Texans Bernard Pollard played for the Chiefs instead of Chiefs Bernard Pollard.

5) GET SOME HELP – Lastly, it is a nice thought to think K-State’s season will just take care of itself if the Wildcats did everything right.  But, no matter how much the program would like it to be, this year’s final standing in the North won’t be entirely up to them.  The team isn’t to that level this season.  KSU is going to need help in a game or two…or three.

That, however, is entirely possible.  The division is Nebraska’s to lose, but after that, take your pick.  I have K-State second because Kansas and Missouri will have at least four conference losses (KU - Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Nebraska and Texas; MU – Neb. Okla. St., Texas and KU), Colorado can run but not throw and Iowa St. isn’t capable of winning a title among the Independents this year.

K-State will lose to Texas Tech, OU and Nebraska, but home games against Texas A&M, Colorado, Kansas and Missouri give the Wildcats a reasonable shot to win those games (again, if all else goes right).

Some teams will need to spiral, others need to fail getting out of the blocks clean, but it’s entirely possible for KSU to enter Big 12 play 3-1 (UCLA the lone blemish) before scratching out four wins in conference play as teams beat up on one another.  Now, all of this said, if Kansas proves to be better than its schedule; if Missouri proves that it has become a reload instead of a rebuild; if Colorado effectively bores its opponents into losses; then the Wildcats wins will evaporate.  It is that fine of a line K-State walks this season.

Grade: A+  Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska all have bent over…backwards…to help K-State this season.  K-State still has to finish the job with a win over either MU or NU, but it took extra effort by the Big 12 North as a whole to put the Wildcats in a bowl-qualifying and possible Big 12 Championship appearance-earning season.  Many KSU fans say they will be happy regardless of how the season turns out, but I think this thing has gone far enough now that if the Wildcats don’t get a bowl or make the championship, it will be a letdown.


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